Last year saw the US equity market experience its worst Christmas Eve on record, the worst December since 1963 and, with the index down 9.2%, one of the poorest months since World War Two.
Scanning market commentary, blame is attributed to an expected sharp slowdown in the US (and by association) the world economy and/or President Trump's erratic behaviour. Looking at the economics, historically, gyrations in the US equity market have matched well with swings in corporate sentiment (captured in the ISM manufacturing sentiment survey). If that relationship still holds, then equity investors are telling us that a sharp slump in business optimism awaits us in 2019. US distributors to feel the pressure from Trump's trade tariffs from China The weakness projected is consi...
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