Nicola Day (pictured), deputy head of Greenbank
One day after the official closing date the “UAE Consensus” finally emerged from COP28, representing the final agreed text.
It included a myriad of statements (over 11,000 words) carefully crafted and agreed by consensus across 197 nations.
Among the vast text there was however one 34-word sentence that was top of the agenda for all the delegates that I met at COP 28, and this was the statement with a commitment to "transition away" from fossil fuels in energy systems.
Many are heralding this steer away from incumbent systems as an important step in the ‘beginning of the end' of the fossil fuel era.
The wording is not perfect and there was much disappointment that stronger "phase out" language was not included, and needs careful attention to avoid loopholes.
Nevertheless, it is a historic moment in climate change negotiations, calling out the "causes" of climate change for the first time.
A COP of many 'firsts'
It was a COP of many 'firsts'. Not only for the fossil fuels final text which hitherto had only mentioned phasing down of a single fossil fuel, coal.
It was the first time the COP had been so inclusive, with the number of participants almost reaching the 100,000 level - the largest by far versus the previous high of 50,000 participants at COP27.
The venue was vast yet still packed with delegates criss-crossing the corridors and avenues across many miles each day to attend the hundreds of meetings scheduled.
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The Green Zone, set outside of the negotiation frenzy of the Blue Zone, housed many of the meetings from wider civil society and business networks.
The corporates and financiers were included more formally for the first time, which ensured some concrete follow through actions.
This was also the first ever Global Stock Take (GST), an instrument of the Paris agreement to track what climate action has been achieved to date, with the emphasis on fully aggregating at a global level to review collective action, not just the usual individual reports at country levels.
The first GST showed that the world is still way off track to meet the ultimate goal of the Paris agreement to limit average temperature rises of 1.5C.
GST is part of a dynamic process called the "ratchet" mechanism, informing countries of the gap that exists and encouraging them to ratchet up their efforts to revise their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which represent their country's pledges for climate action.
Global Tipping Points
The science was loud and clear at COP28, with yet more urgency given 2023 was the hottest year on record, and with irrefutable evidence that we face an existential threat to livelihoods and economies.
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The Global Tipping Points Report, launched at COP28 and compiled by 200 scientists worldwide, emphasises that climate scenario planning is much more complex than plotting linear trajectories.
This is because ‘critical tipping points risks' such as the melting of Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets or the demise of warm water coral reefs, may trigger more out-of-control "irreversible and abrupt changes" which could threaten social and economic stability.
The role of finance
COP28 had a strong focus on implementing practical actions and financing commitments for high-level pledges.
Announcements such as the $30bn climate-focused Alterra investment fund and approximately $180bn dedicated to climate projects by multilateral development banks will help to facilitate the flow of capital into green and sustainable investment opportunities.
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The outcomes from COPs should increasingly provide important price signals for investments, whether in the form of potential direct risks from damage to infrastructure from hurricanes and typhoons, or systemic changes such as the cleaner energy transition leaving stranded assets in the oil and gas sectors as a result of COP28's agreements to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
From mitigation to adaptation, and loss and damage
The climate change agenda has moved swiftly on from mitigation (how we can prevent climate change) to an emphasis on adaptation and loss and damage.
This recognises that climate change is here now, and being felt acutely by small island states, and so adaptation is necessary in many forms such as flood defences, or crops that are resistant to extreme temperatures.
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The operationalisation of the loss and damage fund, which represents the important delivery mechanism from the developed to the impacted developing nations (who have contributed least to the causes) was rightly the centrepiece of the negotiations.
The unprecedented early announcement at the start of COP 28 placing funding pledges on the table, cemented "some" trust between the developing and developed world.
The loss and damage COP28 pledges reached approximately $800m but if we put those in context with the average cost of US hurricane events at $22.8bn, there is a huge financing gap.
The important work must now commence to provide equitable, fast and financed solutions to elevate all the words produced, pledged and promised into powerful action plans.
Nicola Day is deputy head of Greenbank
