US markets have roared back since the brief sell-off last year, with the current surge a whisker off all-time highs. This ebullience is surprising when one considers the maelstrom of negative developments that have bombarded the market over recent months.
Many macroeconomic indicators suggest that moderating economic growth is set to continue: freight activity, PMIs, retailer's same-store-sales, capital spending, semiconductor sales, oil demand and restaurant traffic have all taken a sharp turn for the worse in recent months. Uncertainty caused by the trade war with China, and to a lesser extent Mexico, is clearly causing many business leaders to hit the pause button on long-term investment decisions. The doomsayers are emboldened. They point to several symbolic indicators that have just started flashing red. Firstly, the yield curve has...
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